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Showing posts from October 31, 2016

Are the Polls Telling the Truth?

Here we are a little over a week out from election day, the end to one of the most contentious U.S presidential elections ever, and the polls tell us that... well we're not entirely sure what the polls tell us?
If we believe Nate Silver of 538 fame, it's been over since Sept, the Donald has at best, a 1/5 chance at winning the presidency. And we were to believe the NY Times the election was over in August, no reason for Trump to even bother campaigning.
A week ago an ABC poll gave Clinton a 12 point lead nationally over Trump, a good six points above the next highest poll estimating Hillary's lead. Today (Oct 31) that poll is down to Clinton +1, a pretty major swing, and not all of it was due to the new FBI investigation  of Hillary's emails, Trump was showing momentum in all polls even previous to that.
All except one. The IDP poll has consistently, for weeks, only shown at most a three point spread between Clinton and Trump, the same day of the ABC poll showing +12, …