Here we are a little over a week out from election day, the end to one of the most contentious U.S presidential elections ever, and the polls tell us that... well we're not entirely sure what the polls tell us?
If we believe Nate Silver of 538 fame, it's been over since Sept, the Donald has at best, a 1/5 chance at winning the presidency. And we were to believe the NY Times the election was over in August, no reason for Trump to even bother campaigning.
A week ago an ABC poll gave Clinton a 12 point lead nationally over Trump, a good six points above the next highest poll estimating Hillary's lead. Today (Oct 31) that poll is down to Clinton +1, a pretty major swing, and not all of it was due to the new FBI investigation of Hillary's emails, Trump was showing momentum in all polls even previous to that.
All except one. The IDP poll has consistently, for weeks, only shown at most a three point spread between Clinton and Trump, the same day of the ABC poll showing +12, the put Clinton's lead at +2.
That's a pretty big discrepancy, however, as every other poll has moved in Trump's favour in the past week, IDP wen the other direction, getting up to +4 Clinton about mid-week (it's since dropped back to Clinton +1).
Were the other polls massively oversampling democrats, and following the Comey bombshell have reassessed their sampling, perhaps over correcting, while IDP had it right all along?
That's one possibility, the other being, there are just too many variables, and especially with unpopular candidates, when people are less likely to express their real favourite.
Perhaps, but as many analysts will tell you, national polls are meaningless, it's only battle ground state polls that matter, since that's is where elections are won or lost.
That is of course entirely true, as someone who has followed many election cycles, I can tell you unequivocally that national polls tell you next to nothing, which is why so many people are often surprised by unpredicted outcomes.
So what's really going on? Well the stark reality is that Trump does have a very difficult Electoral College path to victory. He must win Ohio and Florida, but also carry Nevada, Iowa (where he lost the caucus) North Carolina and flip New Hampshire. Some say he might flip a state with more electoral college votes like Wisconsin or Michigan, but I'm not hopeful that's going to happen.
The Dems though, clearly are worried about Trump's traction in New Hampshire, putting money into that state and getting Ben Affleck to do a campaign ad.
So they are worried, telling you that the election is hardly a landslide in the making as many, many liberal pundits claim it is.
What about Nate Silver, who says he just crunches numbers, and numbers don't lie? No numbers don't lie, but people sure do (see above about unpopular candidates). Also, Silver puts very little stock in momentum, but in the elections he's predicted the winning candidates had the momentum, and clearly Trump has the momentum going into the final week, and the polls, all of the polls reflect that, so who's telling the truth here the pollsters, the analysts, or neither?
If we believe Nate Silver of 538 fame, it's been over since Sept, the Donald has at best, a 1/5 chance at winning the presidency. And we were to believe the NY Times the election was over in August, no reason for Trump to even bother campaigning.
A week ago an ABC poll gave Clinton a 12 point lead nationally over Trump, a good six points above the next highest poll estimating Hillary's lead. Today (Oct 31) that poll is down to Clinton +1, a pretty major swing, and not all of it was due to the new FBI investigation of Hillary's emails, Trump was showing momentum in all polls even previous to that.
All except one. The IDP poll has consistently, for weeks, only shown at most a three point spread between Clinton and Trump, the same day of the ABC poll showing +12, the put Clinton's lead at +2.
That's a pretty big discrepancy, however, as every other poll has moved in Trump's favour in the past week, IDP wen the other direction, getting up to +4 Clinton about mid-week (it's since dropped back to Clinton +1).
Were the other polls massively oversampling democrats, and following the Comey bombshell have reassessed their sampling, perhaps over correcting, while IDP had it right all along?
That's one possibility, the other being, there are just too many variables, and especially with unpopular candidates, when people are less likely to express their real favourite.
Perhaps, but as many analysts will tell you, national polls are meaningless, it's only battle ground state polls that matter, since that's is where elections are won or lost.
That is of course entirely true, as someone who has followed many election cycles, I can tell you unequivocally that national polls tell you next to nothing, which is why so many people are often surprised by unpredicted outcomes.
So what's really going on? Well the stark reality is that Trump does have a very difficult Electoral College path to victory. He must win Ohio and Florida, but also carry Nevada, Iowa (where he lost the caucus) North Carolina and flip New Hampshire. Some say he might flip a state with more electoral college votes like Wisconsin or Michigan, but I'm not hopeful that's going to happen.
The Dems though, clearly are worried about Trump's traction in New Hampshire, putting money into that state and getting Ben Affleck to do a campaign ad.
So they are worried, telling you that the election is hardly a landslide in the making as many, many liberal pundits claim it is.
What about Nate Silver, who says he just crunches numbers, and numbers don't lie? No numbers don't lie, but people sure do (see above about unpopular candidates). Also, Silver puts very little stock in momentum, but in the elections he's predicted the winning candidates had the momentum, and clearly Trump has the momentum going into the final week, and the polls, all of the polls reflect that, so who's telling the truth here the pollsters, the analysts, or neither?
Comments
Post a Comment