Bourbon & Bullets

In less than two days America will finally decide who, after a long and bitter election battle, the next president of the United States is. Going into the final weekend however it's anyone's guess what the final result will be. Although, admittedly Clinton does have the edge (the aggregate of polls consistently gives her at least a two point edge). That's not an insurmountable lead, although every presidential nominee since LBG in 1964, who was leading in the polls (no matter how slim the margin) in the last week, won the presidency. I'm not trying to depress you, that's just the cold hard facts. Still, in a close race the 2000 presidential election is instructional. George W. was a three point favourite on the eve of the election (despite the November surprise that he had a DUI conviction from 1976, and ya, I'm really sure the press only just uncovered that tidbit on Nov 2.) The election, as you may remember, ended with Gore up +1 on the popular vote but Geor...

Here we are a little over a week out from election day, the end to one of the most contentious U.S presidential elections ever, and the polls tell us that... well we're not entirely sure what the polls tell us? If we believe Nate Silver of 538 fame, it's been over since Sept, the Donald has at best, a 1/5 chance at winning the presidency. And we were to believe the NY Times the election was over in August, no reason for Trump to even bother campaigning. A week ago an ABC poll gave Clinton a 12 point lead nationally over Trump, a good six points above the next highest poll estimating Hillary's lead. Today (Oct 31) that poll is down to Clinton +1, a pretty major swing, and not all of it was due to the new FBI investigation  of Hillary's emails, Trump was showing momentum in all polls even previous to that. All except one. The IDP poll has consistently, for weeks, only shown at most a three point spread between Clinton and Trump, the same day of the ABC poll showing +12...