Skip to main content

Are the Polls Telling the Truth part II

In less than two days America will finally decide who, after a long and bitter election battle, the next president of the United States is.
Going into the final weekend however it's anyone's guess what the final result will be. Although, admittedly Clinton does have the edge (the aggregate of polls consistently gives her at least a two point edge). That's not an insurmountable lead, although every presidential nominee since LBG in 1964, who was leading in the polls (no matter how slim the margin) in the last week, won the presidency.
I'm not trying to depress you, that's just the cold hard facts. Still, in a close race the 2000 presidential election is instructional. George W. was a three point favourite on the eve of the election (despite the November surprise that he had a DUI conviction from 1976, and ya, I'm really sure the press only just uncovered that tidbit on Nov 2.) The election, as you may remember, ended with Gore up +1 on the popular vote but George W. winning the Electoral College, after a contentious Florida recount, and eventual Supreme Court decision.
So Hillary could win the popular vote by a hair, and still not win the electoral college. As long as Trump is within 1.5-2.5 points of Hillary going into election day, there's a pretty good chance that at the state level he could carry (assuming he already has Iowa and Ohio in the bag) Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and New Hampshire. Those are the battleground states where he is still trailing Hillary. The margins are as low as .3% in Florida to about 4% in North Carolina. And the latter is shaping up to be the make or break state for Trump.
Less than a week ago the Dems were putting effort into holding onto New Hampshire, but as that state has since just moved closer to the Trump win column, all focus is now mainly on North Carolina, with President Obama urging the black vote to come out for Hillary as they did for him in 2008.
Will North Carolina go Republican, as they did in 2012, or can the Dems halt Trump's unexpectedly competitive race to the White House in the tar heel state? If we are going by the polls then the outlook isn't so good for Trump supporters, again, not trying to depress you, just trying to be realistic.
But, then are the polls telling the truth? Many Republicans will tell you there are shy Trump supporters who aren't being honest with pollsters. While I think this may be an issue, I don't think it's nearly as big a phenomenon as they would like to believe.
There is, however, another polling phenomenon in play. Protest Hillary voters. Up until a few days ago, all national polls were trending in Trump's favour, in the past two days Hillary has gotten a small bump. What on earth could possibly give her any uptick at all, as the news (despite efforts by the MSM to cover it up or find new ways to smear Trump) has all been negative for Hillary, as revelations of Watergate level scandals continue to come out.
The only possible answer for this is that previous polls were finding voters who considered voting Trump in protest, thinking he wouldn't win, but are now reconsidering that vote as the polls narrow. I agree, it seems unlikely, but how else to explain an uptick for Hillary at this point in the election, when she is constantly on the defensive?
Well yes, the other answer is in the face of increasing support for Trump across the board, pollsters, on the national level, are stacking their polls with more reliably Democratic respondents, from states like California, NY, Illinois and Mass, since while Hillary has received a bump in the national polls, we don't see it in the battlefield states of Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire or even Pennsylvania (maybe, depending on the poll, a slight increase in North Carolina).
The upshot is, this election has proven the MSM to be completely in the bag for any Democratic nominee no matter how loathsome he or she might be. Their fall back has always been, 'hey, we're just reporting what the polls say.' If Trump wins, pollsters accuracy will be seriously called into question.
Nate Silver, founder of 538, I'll note, has shown a steady rise in Trump's chances, depsite the uptick in national polls for Hillary, demonstrating that he hope sot maintain credibility through this election cycle.







Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Trudeau's tearful apology tour

Trudeau nationalizes Canadian media

Glacier Media (https://www.glaciermedia.ca), is the criminal enterprise you pay for. And it is just one of the big four newspaper groups that Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada are giving $600 million of taxpayer's money to. this is on top of the $75 million already paid out by the Canadian Periodical Fund.
But back to the original sentence, why is Glacier Media a criminal enterprise, you might ask? Well for starters they engage in software piracy, tax fraud, illegal collusion and employ overseas hackers. If they weren't a politically well connected company they'd be the target of multi-national investigations, instead they receive millions of taxpayer dollars. They might not yet escape unscathed, as California takes software piracy very seriously, and will even seek extradition. As well, while the government of Canada turns a blind eye to the overseas hackers illegally working for Glacier Media, shareholders likely won't feel the same. Part of Glacier's busin…

Top Ten Trump Myths